Politics and Big Data: Nowcasting and Forecasting Elections With Social Media

Book Details

• Publisher: Routledge

• Author: Andrea Ceron

• Binding: Paperback

• Edition: Illustrated

• ISBN: 9780367194550

• Pages: 188

• Languages: English

• Release Date: 10-01-2018

• Package Dimensions: 9.1 x 6.1 x 0.6 inches

About The Book
The role of social media in monitoring electoral campaigns has become indispensable in recent years. By evaluating the evolution of online opinions and ideas on a near real-time basis, observers and scholars can track trends and public sentiment long before traditional polls are conducted. However, challenges persist in accurately recording and analyzing the brief, often unverified comments found across social media platforms, and there is a risk of skewed representation due to the unequal age, gender, and racial demographics of users.

In Sentiment Analysis and Electoral Forecasting, Andrea Ceron reviews the various techniques currently employed to use social media for nowcasting and forecasting elections, examining both their achievements and limitations. The book introduces a new technique of "sentiment analysis" to improve the accuracy of these methods, offering a more refined approach to analyzing public sentiment. Through a meta-analysis of existing literature, Ceron highlights the conditions under which social media-based electoral forecasts prove most accurate. Additionally, case studies from countries such as France, the United States, and Italy are included to demonstrate how sentiment analysis provides a significantly more reliable tool for forecasting election outcomes.

This book is a vital resource for those interested in political forecasting, social media analytics, and electoral studies, offering an innovative approach to understanding and predicting election trends in the digital age.