Inference and Intervention: Causal Models for Business Analysis

Book Details
• Language: English
• ISBN-13: 9780415657600
• Author: Michael D. Ryall, Aaron L. Bramson
• Publisher: Taylor & Francis Ltd
• Pages: 280
• Binding: Paperback

Description:
Ryall and Bramson's Inference and Intervention is the first textbook on causal modeling with Bayesian networks for business applications. In a world of resource scarcity, a decision about which business elements to control or change must precede any decision on how to control or change them. Understanding causality is crucial to making effective interventions. The authors cover the full spectrum of causal modeling techniques useful for managerial roles, including intervention, situational assessment, strategic decision-making, and forecasting. This book offers a comprehensive toolbox for MBA students and business professionals to make successful decisions in a managerial setting.

Review:
"One of the most difficult problems any real-world decision maker faces is how to properly incorporate prior information into current decisions. This stunning book by Ryall and Bramson introduces causal models as a method of focusing our attention on what is important: Why are these things happening, and (therefore) what can we do about it? Both modeling and strategy are given full attention. This book is essential reading for anyone who has to make significant decisions."

• David K. Levine, Washington University in St. Louis

"Ryall and Bramson have written a remarkable book that combines a clear, comprehensive introduction into qualitative and quantitative causal models with case studies and examples that show managers how to apply causal models to see the world more clearly and make better decisions."

• Scott E. Page, University of Michigan and Santa Fe Institute

About the Authors:
Michael D. Ryall is an Associate Professor of Strategy at the University of Toronto, Canada. He teaches advanced strategy analysis and causal modeling courses to undergraduate, MBA, and EMBA students. Prior to becoming a full-time scholar, he held positions in consulting, general management, and finance.

Aaron L. Bramson is a researcher at the RIKEN Brain Science Institute, Japan. He has also worked as a research fellow at the Rotman School of Management at the University of Toronto, Canada, and as a software engineer at Lockheed Martin Corporation. He has taught workshops on complexity, networks, and agent-based modeling worldwide.